From 0.7% to Champion: Pragg Wins the UzChess Cup

The UzChess Cup finished yesterday and it was an absolute rollercoaster! The Masters division featured a strong lineup with an average rating of 2724, including four players from the world’s top 10: #3 Arjun Erigaisi, #6 Nodirbek Abdusattorov, and #7 R Praggnanandhaa.

But the craziest part is Praggnanandhaa’s miraculous comeback. I ran outcome simulations (called Monte Carlo method) for each round, simulating one million tournament outcomes based on Elo strength and pairings. After Round 7, Pragg’s win probability had plummeted to just 0.7%. He then won both of the remaining rounds, leading to a three-way tie at the top. With his superior blitz rating, he entered the tiebreak as the statistical favorite and ultimately clinched the tournament victory.

Check out the Win Chances (based on Elo/pairings) after each round below:

Why was it so unlikely that Praggnanandhaa would win?

After Round 7 in the UzChess Cup tournament (single round robin), Pragg had 3.5 points and a 0.7% chance of winning the tournament. The standings and win chances after round 7 (of 9) looked like this (another infographic I made during the tournament):

Pragg was only in position 6, 1.5 points behind the current first place. It seemed almost impossible for him to win the tournament. At that stage, Nodirbek Abdusattorov was leading with 5.0 points.

Round 8

In Round 8, Praggnanandhaa won against Arjun Erigaisi, which slightly improved his chances, raising them to around 6%. He was still a full point behind Nodirbek, who continued to lead the field.

Then came Round 9. Pragg won (with black) against Nodirbek. Sindarov (prior at #2) drew his match leading to a three-way tie for first place.

Tiebreaks

A mini double-round-robin Blitz tournament was held to decide the winner. Given Praggnanandhaa’s strength in faster time controls, his chances in the playoff increased significantly to 62% (based on my simulations). The first round of blitz games ended with all three players scoring 2 points... still no winner yet.

A second tiebreak round followed, this time a single-round-robin. Pragg scored 1.5 points, which was enough to secure the overall tournament victory. Congratulations, Pragg!

FIDE Circuit

With this result, Praggnanandhaa now leads the FIDE Circuit 2025 standings with 94 points, well ahead of the next player. He has already collected several key results this year including a victory at Tata Steel, where he also won the tiebreaks against none other than the current World Champion, Gukesh.

The winner of the circuit secures a spot in the 2026 Candidates Tournament. While several tournaments are still ahead, Pragg has taken a strong lead.

On a personal note: Do you enjoy win probability calculations?

This was the first tournament where I ran simulations and created infographics throughout the event. I was not sure if people would like daily updates so I didn't even share them on Lichess (only on reddit...). Do you like these kind of graphics? Do you like the win chance graph alongside the standings?

I'm open to feedback. Let me know what you'd improve or want to see more of in the next tournament! If you are into these kind of statistics and/or want to support me, feel free to check out my project: ChessMonitor

Thanks for reading! Cheers, Thomas